Potential Votes in Political Perspective
This chart shows the partisan tilt of every district and the vote share won by each member in the last election. The bill is universally opposed by Democrats, and many moderate Republicans oppose the bill. Below is a look at where current members fall along the spectrum, plotted by the political tilt of their district and the lawmakers' share of the vote in the last election.
At least 19 House Republicans have said they oppose the latest version of the Republican plan to repeal Obamacare. House GOP leaders can likely lose only 22 GOP votes to pass the bill, because it isn’t expected to receive any Democratic support.
To understand who opposes the bill and why, it helps to put lawmakers in the context of how the people in their districts tend to vote and what it means for lawmakers' prospects in the 2018 elections.
Republican lawmakers in swing districts have been especially concerned over an amendment that would allow insurers in some states to charge higher premiums to people with pre-existing health conditions who let their coverage lapse. The pre-existing conditions provision has long been one of the the more popular part of the Affordable Care Act.
On Wednesday, GOP leaders won back support from Rep. Fred Upton (R., Mich.) and Rep. Billy Long (R., Mo.) with an amendment to bolster protection for people with pre-existing medical conditions. Mr. Upton and Mr. Long had both opposed the bill earlier in the week.
"No" Votes
The House Freedom Caucus, a loosely affiliated group of the chamber’s most conservative lawmakers, represented the biggest threat to the health-law's passage. According to its mission statement, the group supports "open, accountable and limited government, the Constitution and the rule of law." Their opposition to the GOP bill was rooted in the belief that it didn’t go far enough in undoing the Affordable Care Act. Many of them were holdouts to the very end.
Membership in the Freedom Caucus changes, and the group doesn't divulge an official public roster. Key members of the caucus are identified below based on public statements and Journal reporting.
Freedom Caucus Members
Area of detail
Some 23 House Republicans represent districts that voted for Hillary Clinton for president—a fact that might make them wary of winding up on the wrong side of controversial votes.
Area of detail
The first iteration of the bill faced opposition from both conservative and moderate wings of the party. The latest version won over members of the House Freedom Caucus, a loosely affiliated group of the chamber's most conservative lawmakers, who opposed the first bill because it didn't go far enough in undoing the Affordable Care Act.
Potential votes that sunk Republicans' first Obamacare replacement
The shift in opposition to the bill can be seen using another measure of political position, with nearly all the Republican holdouts on the current version of the bill coming from the centrist wing of the party.
Where House GOP lawmakers opposed to the health-care bill align politically, by one measure of ideological position
Previous version of the bill
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Latest version
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Most conservative
Least conservative
Previous version of the bill
median
Latest version
median
Least conservative
Most conservative
Previous version of the bill
median
Latest version
median
Least conservative
Most conservative
Previous version of the bill
median
Latest version
median
Least
conservative
Most
conservative