10 million — not 20 million — should have Obamacare plans by 2017

Federal health officials expect the number of people insured on the state and federal exchanges by the end of 2016 to be about half the number estimated earlier by the Congressional Budget Office.

The total number of people who bought plans and paid premiums is expected to be about 10 million by the end of next year, up only about 1 million from this year. That's far lower than Congressional Budget Office estimates that topped 20 million. HHS has found that far fewer companies are planning to drop coverage than originally expected, and that fewer employees are planning to shift to buy insurance on the exchanges.

"We haven’t seen much of a shift at all," said Richard Frank, HHS' assistant secretary for planning and evaluation.

Some say the relatively small increase has more to do with the price of the plans.

"This is totally unsurprising and driven by the high cost of Obamacare’s exchange-based plans," said Avik Roy, a senior fellow with the free-market Manhattan Institute.

As for the lower-than-expected estimate for 2016, instead of reaching a plateau, HHS is "seeing a much longer path" to getting people insured, said Frank.

More than 25% of those who are uninsured and eligible to buy plans on the federal and state health insurance exchanges are expected to select plans during the open enrollment that starts Nov. 1, Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Matthews Burwell said Thursday.

The other 75% are "a little harder to reach," said Burwell.

Those who don't have health insurance in 2016 will face a penalty of $695 per person on their taxes for the year.

HHS also said is "working hard to improve the customer experience" and has added new tools to the federal Healthcare.gov website to make it easier to shop for plans, Burwell said.

"We want to make it easier for consumers to find the right plan at the right price," she said.

A new HHS report also provided some of the demographics of the 10.5 million uninsured people who are eligible for exchange plans:

• Almost half are between 18 and 34.
• Nearly 40% are in families earning between 139% and 250% of the federal poverty level, which is about $30,000 – $60,000 for a family of four). Almost 8 in 10 have an income that may qualify them for financial assistance.
• More than a third are minorities. About 19% are Hispanic, 14% are African-American, and 2% are Asian.
• About 57% are male.

Young people, especially men, are in the group known in health care circles as the "young invincibles," which doesn't tend to think insurance is needed.

"This open enrollment is going to be a challenge, but ultimately, having fewer uninsured Americans to sign up is a good problem to have," said Burwell.

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