The headline above is a serious question. Assuming the Trump Family and Friends Tax Cut approved by the Senate by the Senate is enacted, big cuts to Social Security and Medicare will be the next target for the White House and congressional Republican leadership.
The only question is when.
My former blogging partner Bruce Bartlett -- who in a previous life was chief economist for Republican economic icons Representatives Jack Kemp (R-NY) and Ron Paul (R-TX) -- for weeks has been shouting from the mountaintop the extreme likelihood of the GOP training its sights on Social Security and Medicare. To paraphrase Bruce's wisdom (look here, here and here, for example), the Republican deficit hawks that have been in the budget version of the witness protection program during the current mega deficit-increasing tax cut debate will reemerge with a vengeance to demand Social Security and Medicare cuts to reduce the deficit they just created.
Once the tax cut is signed expect to hear this from every Republican and fiscal responsibility group: We must do something immediately to reduce the deficit, which has suddenly & unexpectedly increased. Slashing Social Security & Medicare is something. Therefore we must do it.
— Bruce Bartlett (@BruceBartlett) December 3, 2017
Anyone who follows the budget knows that, for mathematical reasons alone, Social Security and Medicare have to be the GOP's prime targets. Interest on the national debt will be increasing substantially in the years ahead as the federal deficit reaches $1 trillion or more and interest rates rise. Republicans want to increase military spending and there's not enough domestic appropriations left to cut that will make much of a difference. That basically leaves Social Security and Medicare (and, to a much lesser extent, Medicaid) as the only real targets when, as is certain as anything can be in Washington politics these days, the deficit reemerges as the GOP's reason for living.
That changes the question from if the GOP will try to slash Social Security and Medicare to when will the onslaught begin.
Next year -- 2018 -- makes some sense because Republicans will still have a majority in both the House and Senate and, therefore, be in control of the budget process. Although there are severe Byrd rule problems dealing with Social Security in reconciliation, the GOP majorities in both houses of Congress makes reductions in these two programs at least possible. And, as they just showed during the Senate tax cut debate, given the now legendary Republican willingness to ignore rules, deny facts and break with long-established norms, there's little doubt they would disregard or overrule the parliamentarian's Byrd rule decisions if they felt that was the only way they could get what they wanted.
On the other hand, it may not make sense for congressional Republicans, whose hold on the House and Senate is increasingly tenuous, to risk their majorities even further by cutting -- or even just proposing -- cuts in Social Security and Medicare only months before the 2018 election. Then again, with their House and Senate majorities in jeopardy, the GOP may see 2018 as its last chance to go after these two very popular programs.
If the GOP is able to maintain its congressional majorities, the year after the election -- 2019 -- makes some sense. OMB Director Mick Mulvaney and others have already said the budget deficit will be much higher in fiscal 2018 so the Republican-induced deficit hysteria may not reach the fevered pitch the GOP needs to push Social Security and Medicare cuts until 2019 rolls around. But with the tax bill's projected revenue loss expected to spike the deficit to $1 trillion or more in 2019, Mulvaney likely to be long gone and a new OMB director sounding the deficit alarm, that might be the year.
There's one more alternative: a lame duck session after the November 2018 election but before the next Congress is sworn in in January 2019. A Democratic wave in the 2018 election would push the soon-to-be-replaced Republican majorities to try to enact the Social Security and Medicare cuts before they lose the ability to determine the legislative agenda. It would also allow the departing GOP representatives and senators to vote on the reductions without having to worry about direct political retributions from their voters.
Yes, this would be close to the height of GOP political cynicism and self-interest. Then again, it would follow a huge increase in the deficit caused by a Republican tax cut that the GOP will be blaming on spending.
In other words, it should be expected.
