Congress

Trump’s Obamacare stumble empowers Pelosi

Nancy Pelosi is suddenly relevant again.

The implosion of the all-Republican effort to lay waste to Obamacare showed that President Donald Trump might need the San Francisco Democrat to salvage the rest of his agenda. The self-professed master negotiator couldn’t get it done with his own party, despite a 44-seat House majority, and hinted afterward he might start to look across the aisle.

“Ironically, the president who ran as the great deal-maker couldn’t even make a deal with the people on his own team. It’s our leader who continues to unify us,” Rep. Eric Swalwell of California, a close Pelosi ally, told POLITICO. “Republicans should take a lesson from that.”

Republicans have turned to Pelosi for years to deliver Democratic votes on must-pass legislation to keep the government open and raise the debt ceiling. But with Trump in the White House and the GOP in control of Congress, dismantling Obamacare was supposed to be the first example that Pelosi’s help was no longer needed, much less wanted.

Instead, House Republicans’ crash-and-burn pointed to the opposite. The leader of the seemingly powerless House minority might actually have some juice. And the unexpected dynamic is already showing signs of uniting of her own caucus, which has been struggling to come together after Democrats’ crushing election losses.

In November, Pelosi (D-Calif.) beat back the first real leadership challenge of her long career, fueled by charges that Democrats needed fresh ideas to compete for Trump voters. But there she was on Friday, literally jumping for joy on the Capitol lawn after the GOP’s face-plant on Obamacare, her signature achievement in Congress.

The next big showdown in Congress comes at the end of April, when government funding runs out. Pelosi has already made clear her caucus won’t support any spending bill that provides money for Trump’s proposed border wall between the U.S. and Mexico.

Since the Republican Conference’s divisions aren’t likely to heal soon — Trump was tweeting barbs at the Freedom Caucus over the weekend — GOP leaders may have to heed Pelosi’s warning early on if they want to avoid a government shutdown.

But beyond just keeping the government running, Trump could be forced to seek out Pelosi on everything from tax reform to raising the debt ceiling to a $1 trillion infrastructure package he’s touted.

Pelosi’s power comes down to simple math. House Democrats are powerless to stop a unified Republican Conference from passing anything in the House. But GOP leaders need 218 votes and last week proved they are unable, for now, to corral a majority from within their caucus.

Whether Trump attempts to negotiate with Pelosi directly or looks to pick off conservative-leaning members of her caucus is an open question. Or he could pursue a Republican-only strategy again if he believes he can have better success next time than he did on Obamacare repeal.

The next big item Trump wants to tackle, a comprehensive tax overhaul, will likely be even more divisive within the GOP than health care.

On Friday, Trump called Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) “losers,” because “now they own Obamacare, 100 percent own it.” At the same time, the president said he’d be open to working with Democrats to fix health care once Obamacare “explodes.”

Two days later, Trump blamed Democrats and the arch-conservative House Freedom Caucus for the repeal defeat.

“Democrats are smiling in D.C. that the Freedom Caucus, with the help of Club For Growth and Heritage, have saved Planned Parenthood & Ocare!” Trump tweeted Sunday morning.

While Democrats could not have stopped Republicans from passing their repeal bill, Pelosi made sure her caucus didn’t inadvertently assist them, either.

She began organizing a strategy to stop the repeal in late December, encouraging members to hold events in support of Obamacare, closely monitoring grass-roots efforts and pushing back on any rank-and-file efforts in recent weeks to introduce Democratic alternatives.

“I felt like we were the basketball team in the huddle with 10 seconds left on the clock and our coach is looking at her clipboard and she’d been there before,” Swalwell said.

But even now, some Democrats are privately questioning how long Pelosi will stay.

Pelosi has said she would have retired had Hillary Clinton won the election, ensuring Obamacare was safe. Sources close to her now say just because the current repeal effort is dead doesn’t mean to expect her departure anytime soon.

“This is just about the death of one bill. Granted it probably means that anything comprehensive is never going to happen. But there are still little things Republicans can do,” said one Democratic aide.

Pelosi, 77, has been leader since 2003; other members of the caucus’ top leadership team are in their mid- to late-70s.

Younger members of the party have long complained they need fresh leadership to lead the uphill effort of someday retaking the House.

A few members and aides reiterated those concerns privately to POLITICO over the weekend.

But Pelosi allies argue she is the only one in their caucus adept enough to navigate Congress with someone as unconventional as Trump in the White House.

“She had a much more skillful president in George Bush and his team and a much more experienced hand in [former House Speaker] Dennis Hastert,” said one lawmaker who requested anonymity. “This is child’s play right now for her.”

For now, Pelosi is just relishing victory. When House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) conceded that Obamacare is “the law of the land” and will be “for the foreseeable future,” Pelosi celebrated the moment in uncharacteristic fashion.

The Democratic leader, known for her business-like manner, kicked off her heels on the Capitol grounds Friday, jumping up and down in her stocking feet with supporters.

“Ho, ho, hey, hey, ACA is here to stay,” the crowd chanted.